TI News
 Subscribe TI News Archive

TI News: An information service from Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI)

April 26, 2011

PROJECTED BOOKINGS FOR THE TOP THREE OVERSEAS TRAVEL EXPORT MARKETS

UNITED KINGDOM Travel Trade Barometer: Trade Curtailed Expectations for Growth in the First Quarter 2011

  • United Kingdom tour operators reported in the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored United Kingdom Travel Trade Barometer (as of January 21 - February 25, 2011) that bookings from the United Kingdom to the United States for the first half of 2011 would be about the same as last year
  • In the October 2010 survey session, the majority of trade (67%) projected bookings to be higher for the first quarter 2011. In this survey session, the trade curtailed their expectations, with only one quarter (25%) of the respondents projecting higher bookings for the first quarter 2011 compared to first quarter 2010.
  • Also, on average, the respondents projected bookings to be about the same for the second quarter. However, half (50%) of the trade projected bookings to be higher year over year. Just over two fifths (42%) projected bookings to be on par with last year. In contrast, a small minority of respondents (less than one in ten) projected bookings to be lower for the quarter, year over year.
  • On average, there were no factors that were rated to be motivators for travel over the next six months. The closest was accommodation rates.
  • For the fifth survey in a row, the top deterrent, on average, was the level of promotion by other long-haul destinations. The economy in the United Kingdom and the global economy rounded out the top three deterrents for travel, on average, over the next six months.

JAPAN Travel Trade Barometer: Optimism Waned for Projecting Growth in the First Quarter 2011

  • Japan tour operators reported in the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Japan Travel Trade Barometer (as of January 26 - February 25, 2011) that bookings for travel to the United States in the first quarter 2011 would be on par with last year. (These Barometer results were finalized prior to Japan's March 12, 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis.
  • A slight majority (53%) of the Japanese travel trade projected higher bookings for travel to the U.S. mainland in the first quarter 2011 compared to the first quarter 2010. But on average, bookings were projected to be flat. This was influenced by 29 percent of the respondents projecting bookings to be about the same as last year, and nearly one fifth (18%) of the trade projecting bookings to be lower compared to a year ago.
  • The top motivator listed for travel from Japan to the United States over the next six months was the exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. Deregulation of charter flights and the level of promotion by U.S. destinations and businesses rounded out the top three.
  • The top deterrent listed for travel from Japan to the United States over the next six months was airfare/fuel surcharges.

GERMANY Travel Trade Barometer: Stall in Growth in 4th Quarter 2010 Continued into 2011

  • According to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Germany Travel Trade Barometer, Germany tour operators reported (as of January 19 - February 25, 2011) that bookings to the United States in the first quarter 2011 would be flat, on average, compared to first quarter 2010 bookings.
  • German operators were more optimistic for second quarter 2011 bookings. A strong majority of respondents projected higher (56%) and much higher (22%) bookings for the second quarter. However, just over one fifth of the trade projected bookings to be about the same as second quarter 2010.
  • On average, over the next six months, the improved German economy was listed as the only motivator, on average, for increasing bookings from Germany to the United States. The exchange rate and accommodation rates remained neutral, on average, as a motivator or deterrent.
  • The top rated deterrent, on average, by the German operators was the requirement to implement the Electronic System for Travel Authorization, which has been a consistent deterrent through 2010. Airfare crept up as a deterrent in the previous survey session (ranked 8th) and jumped to the second most concerning deterrent in this survey session.

NATIONAL EXPORT INITIATIVE:
To improve conditions that directly affect the private sector's ability to export and to boost employment recovery, on March 11, 2010 President Obama created the National Export Initiative (NEI). The automation of the arrival/departure Form [CBP Form I-94W] for Visa Waiver Program travelers supports this initiative as the automated form will greatly improve the measurement and timely release of international arrival data to the United States. To learn more about the NEI, you are encouraged to visit <http://www.trade.gov/nei/index.asp>.

BACKGROUD AND SOURCE:
Travel Market Insights (www.travelmi.com) conducts the Canada, Mexico, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and People's Republic of China Travel Trade Barometer programs. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, is a sponsor and was the initial developer of the barometer program. The Barometer program is conducted with support from the U.S. Commercial Service and various Visit USA Committees and additional sponsors.

Travel Market Insights conducts the Japan Travel Trade Barometer in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, Sloan Travel and Tourism Industry Center/University of South Carolina and the National Tour Association. The Japan Travel Trade Barometer program is also conducted in partnership with Japan Tourism Marketing and the Japan Visit USA Committee.

The Travel Trade Barometer survey is conducted on a quarterly basis in Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and the People's Republic of China and is available through subscription. Discussions with industry partners to add Brazil are in progress. For more information, please contact Scott C. Johnson at Travel Market Insights on 518-668-2559.

Reports sent to subscribers include additional information, such as:

  • Bookings - looking at the past quarter and the next two quarters for U.S. and competitive regional destinations;
  • Short term bookings for more than five specific travel segments; and
  • Over 15 motivators or deterrents for travel to the United States.

Specific (proprietary) destination data is also available through a subscription.

For more information on the Travel Barometer Program, please visit http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/programs/barometer/index.html

CONTACT:
U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration
Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI)
1401 Constitution Avenue N.W., Room 1003
Washington, D.C. 20230
Phone: (202) 482-0140
Fax: (202) 482-4279
Email: otti@trade.gov