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Date: Mon, 21 June 2004
From: TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
To: TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
Subject: Summer Arrivals from the UK and Germany Predicted to be a Boom for the United States

=== TINEWS ===================================

June 21, 2004

Contact: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
E-mail: otti@trade.gov
Web: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov
Phone: (202) 482-0140, Fax: (202) 482-2887

Summer Arrivals from the UK and Germany Predicted to be a Boom for the United States

The latest U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, Travel Barometer survey session for the UK and Germany predicted strong growth in arrivals this summer.

UK Report Highlights:

  • All of the respondents predicted second and third quarter 2004 travel demand to be higher or much higher compared to 2003. No respondents predicted demand to decrease for the second survey session in a row.
  • Demand for major cities in the U.S. continued to have the highest average for summer travel. Demand for secondary destinations was also predicted to be higher by approximately nine out of ten (88%) respondents.
  • The strong prediction for higher demand by trade was likely driven by solid growth in inquiries and bookings for summer travel.
  • Misinformation for consumers on entry and exit requirements to the USA was listed as the top barrier. The other key barriers listed for this summer included: the level of promotion by U.S. destinations and businesses, perception in travel safety to the U.S., level of promotions by other long-haul destinations, exchange rate to the U.S. Dollar, airfare, and air capacity.

Germany Report Highlights:

  • Over eight out of ten (81%) of the German tour operators predicted higher demand for the summer months. Half (50%) of the respondents predicted much higher demand and nearly one-third (31%) predicted higher demand, compared to last year. None of the trade predicted a decrease compared to last summer, and only 13% predicted demand to be about the same as last summer.
  • Bookings for second and third quarter 2004, at the time of the survey, were up 16 - 20 percent on average for respondents, compared to a year ago.
  • Arrivals to all destinations (included in the survey) were projected to be higher through the summer.
  • Respondents predicted higher travel demand for major cities, however, secondary destinations were predicted to be about the same on average, compared to last year. Nature-based travel was predicted to increase in second and third quarter.
  • The top barriers for travel remain the German economy and travel safety.

The Travel Barometer program is the most timely and reliable predictor for leisure travel to the U.S. and U.S. destinations and businesses. It is an invaluable tool for international destination marketing executives given the rapidly changing travel environment and the need for timely and reliable predictors.

The 2004 Travel Barometer Survey is a qualitative survey designed to collect input from active travel trade working in country to sell and promote travel to the United States. The goal is to provide a reliable and timely short-term forecast on travel demand to the U.S. and report on market conditions for travel to the United States.

Subscriptions:
Core Subscription: $800 (USD)
Destination Subscription: $2,500 (USD)
Customized Subscription: $4,999 (USD)

Reports are distributed in an electronic web-based format and can only be accessed using a unique user name and password. Subscriptions are available at http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/recovery.html.

The next survey session will be conducted the first two weeks of July 2004 reviewing second quarter demand, and forecasting travel demand for the second half of 2004.

To add your destination or customized questions to the next quarterly survey session, or to learn how to make the travel Barometer work for you, contact Scott Johnson at (518) 963-4126 or via e-mail at scott@travelmi.com.

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Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: otti@trade.gov

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